Deep Survival with Laurence Gonzales: Bad News: Disaster is Inevitable. Here's How to Avoid It. - National Geographic ADVENTURE


SBR 1502

Very good post with useful information. I really appreciate the fact that you approach these topics from a stand point of knowledge and information. Please keep on posting.
18 The post is written in very good mannerand it entails many useful information for me. I am happy to find your distinguished way of writing the post.

mulberry outlet

Go for someone who makes you smile because it takes only a smile to make a dark day seem bright.

moncler outlets

I'd actually love to review these boxes on my shopping/lifestyle blog. i wonder if they'd send me a sample box to talk about?

free fico score

Sounds like you had an amazing time.

supra vaider

Now we have a great walkway that goes to the beach and to the canals that came from the partnership of community with government

Mountain Hiking & Trekking

Mountain Hiking & Trekking is a over 15 years of successful Experienced, professional from Himalaya Sherpa Trekking & Travel company in Nepal. And Fully Registered and Approved by all Tourism department of Nepal we organize Trekking in Nepal, peak climbing in Nepal, all Tibet Tour & Trekking, India Tour & Trekking, Bhutan Tour.


Interesting post. My husband and I has been traveling ever since we've been dating. We've slowly been incorporating more and more safety precautions lately since we already have a kid in tow.

Juicy Couture On Sale

Because wage inequality has risen during this time, I suspect that they’ve risen even more relative to the median worker.

Tina G.

Ditto re: "The author probably doesn't know that Craig Hiemstra was a PhD economist and expert in chaos theory. I think Craig would have found this article remarkably stupid." Totally agree with Steve Knack. Thank you, Steve.


Nepal Trekking Tour Operator , Mountain Biking Holiday in Nepal and Tibet, Tibet Tours Package, Nepal Travel Package, Travel Agency Nepal, Bhutan Tours Package

jordan 13

Indeed it is very craziness going this place and i would definitely like to be there for traveling an vacationing.I always love to be on the beaches link my name to see my website about jordan shoes.
Thanks for useful information.

Darcy @ Survival Skills

Yes, it really is about the environment you're heading into and risk management appropriate for that environment. Your parallel with markets and their systems is interesting because what we know is people don't really understand markets - it's a complex system that few really understand so they just don't know the risks.

nepal trekking

Mountaineering is always challenge even for experienced Sherpa Guide.

Steve Knack

The author probably doesn't know that Craig Hiemstra was a PhD economist and expert in chaos theory. I think Craig would have found this article remarkably stupid.

Helen Miksits

'Whether on mountains, in air travel, or on Wall Street, disaster is bound to strike. It’s just part of the system. So, how to avoid it?'

Simple: Don't climb mountains and don't invest in the market. Another suggestion: quit writing and learn to walk when chewing gum.


I'm not sure i understand the point of this article, nor am i positive that you fully understand what you're writing about. you throw around words like "system" and apply them haphazardly to any and everything. just what exactly are the specific systems you're talking about?

you say that "Climbers and rescuers and all their equipment come together to form complex systems around popular mountains. There are numerous small accidents and a few rare catastrophes, characterized by unintended effects that tend to grow larger rather than settling down." are you referring to the system of every accident that has ever happened on a given mountain? or a single event such as the unfortunate incident used as anecdotal evidence? each individual system would look drastically different.

secondly, you write, "There are a number of immediately obvious observations that we can make about this accident. One is: Don’t go into harm’s way with people you don’t know." That's not an observation. that's an axiom.

thirdly, this sentence, "Self-organizing systems generally involve numerous agents (people) acting by fairly simple rules that cause the actions of one or more agents to influence what others do" is one of the most poorly written i've ever read.

fourthly, did you write this when you were drunk, "This means, for example, that a change in price of 2 percent might be three times as likely as a change in price of 4 percent"?

one of the first things they teach you in school is to proof-read: "The first is that it is impossible to prevent accidents in such a system as a whole".

"It’s certainly possible to increase the rate at which accidents occur if enough people behave irresponsibly, or to reduce it if everybody is alert. But you won’t change the general nature of the fat tail curve. Accidents of all sizes will continue to occur, whether on mountains, in air travel, or on Wall Street." so your advice to travelers is to "be aware". wonderful, wonderful advice.

and finally, "Although it’s mathematically certain that these accidents will happen wherever we put together a complex system, they don’t have to happen to you." yes. they will happen to you, because you're an idiot.

Seriously, this article is a hatchet job of some theory from the 80's written by someone who obviously doesn't understand it. i am surprised at National Geographic for lending its name to something as poorly written as this. the author's logic is considerably flawed, his evidence weak and disconnected to his main points. i'd go back to journalism school before writing anything else


Your principles can be applied to intentional entrepreneurship, which certainly gets its share of adventure analogies. While you focus here on system accidents, system disruptions frequently hinder the best entrepreneurs. The lesson for adventurers and for entrepreneurs is to plan for system disruption, and to assign people to operate accordingly. Planning for only a single desired outcome is dangerous, as you say here, and also extremely unlikely to come to pass.


Very nice article....loved reading it!!

Himalaya Trekking

dangers are inevitable, especially in high altitude climbing. But with enough precautions such as knowledge of the conditions, it can be minimized. Very good article.

The Adventure Channel

hehe, cool article :)

The comments to this entry are closed.



Recent Comments

February 2012

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29